Hedge Calculator

Hedging is one of those betting decisions that splits people. You've got a parlay down to the last leg or a futures bet that's looking good, and now you can bet the other side to guarantee profit. But should you?

The math nerds will tell you hedging is usually -EV. If your original bet was +EV, and you hedge it with a -EV bet (which almost all bets are), you're reducing your expected value. They're technically right. But they're also ignoring the very real psychology and risk tolerance factors that come into play.

Here's the truth: sometimes it makes perfect sense to lock in a guaranteed profit, even if it's theoretically suboptimal. If you've got a shot at turning $50 into $5,000 but can hedge for a guaranteed $2,000, and $2,000 would be meaningful money to you, go ahead and hedge. Your bankroll isn't infinite, and neither is your risk tolerance.

The almost-there parlay: You bet $20 on a five-leg parlay paying +2000. Four legs hit and the last game is tomorrow. You can either let it ride for a $400 profit or hedge the final leg to guarantee something like $150-200 no matter what happens. This is the classic hedge situation.

Futures bets that moved in your favor: You bet a team to win the championship at +1200 before the season. They make the finals and are now -150 to win it all. You could hedge on their opponent and lock in profit either way, or let your original bet ride at the great price you got.

Live betting opportunities: You bet the underdog at +300 pregame. They jump out to a big lead and are now -200 to win. You can hedge on the favorite at +170 to guarantee profit, or stick with your original position.

Middling opportunities: This is a special case where you bet both sides at different numbers, trying to win both. Like betting the favorite at -3 early in the week, then betting the underdog at +7 if the line moves. If the favorite wins by 4-6, you win both bets.

The key question is: would you make the hedge bet if you didn't already have the original bet? If the answer is no—if you're only considering the hedge to "protect" your existing position—then you're probably making an -EV decision.

But there are legitimate reasons to hedge anyway:

Bankroll constraints: If the potential loss would significantly hurt your bankroll or betting capacity, hedging makes sense even if it costs you EV. Survival matters more than optimal play.

Life money vs. betting money: If a win would meaningfully change your life or financial situation, guaranteeing even a reduced payout might be worth it. Not everything is about long-term expected value.

Contest or tournament situations: In betting contests where you're playing with house money or in a specific time-limited competition, different strategic considerations apply. Locking in a win might be the smart move.

True middle or arbitrage opportunities: Sometimes the hedge bet itself has value, or you can find a middle where both bets can win. These are clear spots to hedge.

If you decide to hedge, this calculator will show you the exact amounts to bet for different outcomes—whether you want equal profit on both sides, or to break even on one side, or something in between.

Most people go for equal profit on both sides, which maximizes your guaranteed return. But sometimes it makes more sense to hedge less—maybe guarantee yourself 50% of the max win rather than taking 100% guaranteed at a much lower amount.

The calculator does the math so you know exactly what you're getting into. See the numbers clearly and make your decision from there. No one can tell you what's right for your situation—it depends on your bankroll, your risk tolerance, and what the money means to you.